With lingering doubts about weather and foreign stocks, the world supply outlook becomes a game of wait and see.

In 2003, U.S. corn growers are expected to plant some 80.5 million acres; up 1.5 million acres from 2002 and the largest corn acreage in the past 7 years. That was the forecast from analysts at the 2003 U.S. Agricultural Outlook Forum in Washington, D.C.

Virtually all gains in corn plantings come at the expense of soybean acreage, put at 72.2 million acres--the smallest planted bean acreage since 1999.

But it's still early. Longer range, the crop production and price picture is clouded with "ifs."

"There are a lot of unknowns," agreed Roger Caffrey, MFA director of grain marketing. "If we grow more corn, we still have to export at least a third of our production. The U. S. is the biggest corn producer in the world, by far, but we depend on foreign buyers to take a big chunk of what we grow, and we face competition from Argentina, South Africa and especially China. As usual, China's corn exports are the big question mark."

Domestic demand for corn continues to grow. Corn used for ethanol production is projected to increase by 9 percent from the record levels of 2002-03. Corn for high-fructose corn syrup, glucose and dextrose should rebound, after a couple of years of slight declines in usage.

"And there are questions on the production side," said Caffrey. "The long-range forecast is for dry weather to continue, especially in the western Corn Belt."

In irrigated regions of the high plains, last year's drought pulled water tables down considerably. Coupled with sharply higher prices for natural gas (which fuels many irrigation rigs), that makes irrigation more costly and may be forcing some producers to reduce corn plantings.

On the other hand, some Midwest growers plan to grow corn after corn this year, rather than rotate to a soybean crop. That would account for part of the gain in corn acreage, compared with soybean plantings.

Despite a drop in prospective acreage, soybean production may be up on the strength of higher yields, given a decent growing season, said USDA analysts. They project the 2003 average bean yield at 39.7 bushels per acre, up from last year's 37.8-bushel average yield. If that kind of yield materializes, the 2003 soybean crop may total about 2.8 million bushels.

Domestic demand for soybean oil may increase by about 2 percent from this year. Soybean-oil meal demand likely will grow more slowly; little expansion in pork and poultry feeding is expected.

As this is written, another Persian Gulf war is underway. How much will an armed conflict with Iraq affect export demand for U.S. farm commodities?

"I doubt that an Iraq war will have much direct impact on demand or prices around the world," said Caffrey. "However, to the extent that war disrupts oil supplies, that could affect production and transportation costs."

Right now, prices for both corn and soybeans are up marginally, and usage for both crops holds steady. USDA forecasters put the 2002-03 ending stocks at 929 million bushels for corn and 165 million bushels for soybeans--both down sharply from the end of the previous marketing year.

"Some farmers like to hold grain as a sort of hedge against a poor year," said Caffrey. "But prices are above both the loan and LDP [loan deficiency payment] rates now. As we get into the season, if the market sees the prospect for a big crop, prices could dip. I remember 1995, when we had the opportunity to sell corn at $5 per bushel but many of us held until the price went back down again."