Most agriculture-based counties haven't seen boom times recently. In fact, since the '80s, we've become accustomed to hearing about rural counties beleaguered by either a stumbling agricultural economy or a sour national economy. Sometimes it's an especially damaging combination of both.

For economic planners, the obvious response in rural counties has been to diversify toward an economy less dependent on agriculture. Doing so shores up local economies and human capital.

In sociological terms, human capital is the stuff that makes the world go 'round. It is workers and consumers, money makers and money spenders--the bedrock of community and economy. But by oversight or happenstance, the efforts to boost rural economies have missed an important segment of population--retirees. People aged 64 to 85 are moving out of our most agriculture-dependent counties and searching out places with better scenery, warmer climates and more quality services, especially retirement and health services.

On a macro level, the trend shows itself with population booms in Florida, Arizona and New Mexico. On a more local level, locations like Lake Ozark, Branson and southwest Missouri/northwest Arkansas have seen dramatic population growth, some of which is due to retirees. The losers in this equation are agriculture-intensive counties north of the Missouri River.

And when older people migrate out of a rural area, the damage is greater than you may have imagined.

Here's why: net worth and transfer payments. The factor of retirees' net worth is common sense. These are people who have worked a lifetime, and very often, they have the financial assets to show for it. Transfer payments are more complicated. They tend to figure into local economies in more stealthy ways.

Pick any agriculture-based, rural county in north Missouri and tally the contribution of government transfer payments toward county-wide total personal income. The result will be about 20 percent of all personal income. This includes all government transfer payments such as unemployment and veterans' payments, but excludes farm payments.

The telltale statistic, the one that highlights the financial weight carried by retirees, is the combination of Social Security payments and Medicare. Together, these entitlements represent about 62 percent of transfer payments.

Throw in Medicaid to reach about 80 percent of all transfer payments. Social Security is cash in the hand for older people to spend. Medicare and Medicaid count as income, but get pumped directly into the engines of local commerce via health services.

In 1990, total transfer payments paid in Missouri were nearly $12 billion. By 2000, those payments topped $22 billion, including $9 billion spent for medical transfer payments. In 2000, cash receipts for agricultural products in Missouri totaled $4.6 billion.

These numbers seem staggering right now. But the transfer payment statistics will only grow as the Baby Boom generation hits the 64-to-85 age group.

The challenge for rural, agriculture-based counties is to find a way to bolster services and facilities that help retain the older population. Such a challenge will lead to interesting discussions among community leaders and lawmakers.

It's a discussion that rural leaders should lead at the state level to determine the future health of rural communities.

Failing that, it is the rural constituency that should decide how its own body is parsed, divided and consolidated.