We're heading toward a record I'd rather avoid. As I assemble this column, a large part of MFA's territory is in the midst of a drought. In fact, Boone County in central Missouri won the "honor" of being the driest county in the state. My own corn and soybean fields show the effects of a month with no rain. In fact, from June 24 to July 28, Boone County recorded less than 0.1 inch of rain. As you can see by the accompanying map, a large part of the rest of the state suffered a similar fate.

Of course, there's danger in writing too much about year-end crop results in early August for a September magazine. The weather could turn wet in a hurry, however unlikely. But one thing is certain at this point. The corn crop is going to be hurt. How badly will depend on the weather in late July and mid-August. Yes, there are portions of the state (both the northwest and southeast) that will turn in good yields. But overall, yields look to be hurt significantly.

Dr. Paul Tracy, MFA's head of agronomy services, says that yield potential is set now despite the amount of rain from here on. There are, he said, four main factors that determine corn yield: 1) number of plants per acre; 2) number of ears per plant; 3) number of kernels per ear; and 4) kernel size. Only kernel size can be influenced by timely rain now. The other three factors were already determined by late July.

Here at MFA in an average year, we handle more than 40 million bushels of grain. Forty million bushels is also our approximate total storage capacity. Grain sales average around $220 million. Grain is extremely important to our business and to our member/owners. There will be an effect.

Let's hope for timely rains to help the bean crop. Despite the limited rainfall to date, beans can set more blooms. But it will be up to Mother Nature to provide enough daylight and to accommodate us with a late frost. Still, bottom pods at this point are likely to be gone or severely shrunken which could lead to a 20 percent yield reduction.

Just recently, I attended a meeting at the University of Missouri which was also attended by Missouri Senator Kit Bond and the heads of the state commodity groups to discuss crop and pasture conditions. From that meeting, we learned that we must make do with existing programs for this crop season. Additional help from Washington, D.C., is unlikely this year. Discussion included references to Loan Deficiency Payments, but from my perspective, LDPs are just shy of useless when you have little to no crop and the base price is above the LDP level as it stands today.

Shortly before the meeting at the university, MFA's corporate board of directors had a meeting. As an example of the wide-ranging effects of the drought and today's economic climate, one of our board members was purposely not irrigating because of the cost of diesel fuel and LP necessary to pump water from 750 feet. The economics weren't there. Energy prices are further complicating cropping decisions. Those prices don't look to get lower any time soon. That's bad news for the fertilizer industry as well, not to mention everyone's fuel bills.

This drought is also showing itself in other areas of the business. Ask any livestock farmer. And, while the drought will not affect MFA's business operations greatly this fiscal year, it will dramatically affect our Ô06 numbers when you consider the grain volume mentioned above. Most likely, the biggest impact will come this fall and next spring when farmers and ranchers are tempted or forced to cut back on fertilizer applications because of budget considerations. I understand the thought process. But please consider the consequences of limiting plant food applications. I say that not simply from my position at MFA but as a farmer myself. Everyone must operate his business according to his individual economics. But there's little to be gained by allowing one drought to limit two crops.

Another potentially dangerous consequence is mycotoxin. Drought-stressed kernels are susceptible to fungal diseases like mycotoxins. The No. 1 mycotoxin in MFA's trade territory is aflatoxin. Others to a lesser extent are ergopeptine, ergovaline and fumonisin. According to Dr. Tracy, in view of this mid-summer drought, farmers, who do have corn to combine, need to stay on top of the situation.