MFA Incorporated
COUNTRY CORNER
By Steve Fairchild

Nothing earns respect as much as success. And success, to any farmer who hopes to remain one, is measured by profits. That is why you see a few more goats grazing in Midwest pastures.

Between 1999 and 2003, U.S. consumption of goat meat grew by 64 percent. In fact, annual consumption outpaces domestic supply by a couple million pounds. A domestic market that outstrips domestic demand is a situation most agricultural producers won't often face. And it's the driving force for a true renaissance in Midwest goat production.

Now, let's admit that there is a certain caste system in animal agriculture. Beef is big business in these parts. As such, it draws the most research in terms of improved genetics, improved feed, improved health products—all the way down the chain to where the industry's bottom feeder, a magazine editor, gets excited telephone calls about the lack of coverage on goats.

It's an editor's fate, these telephone calls. There were plenty of them about the coming reign of the meat emu and ostrich steaks, too. The editor is forever hearing about the Next Big Thing and as such must always ask: Is the news in the mainstream or on the fringe? As usual, that question is answered with another. Is the Next Big Thing being sold as food or as breeding pairs? If it's cheap enough to eat, there's a real market.

Goat producers see that real market demand, and they're expanding herds to meet it. But is it mainstream or fringe? I called Gene Danekas, director at the Missouri Agricultural Statistics Service, for some numbers. Danekas told me that at last count there are about 35,000 meat goats in Missouri and nearly 9,000 milk goats—the numbers from a 2005 survey. Danekas figures the most recent numbers are a little low. He said the recent survey is part of a series and to watch for revised numbers to be released Jan. 27, 2006. At risk of stinging letters, I won't call the goat industry fringe. I'll call it not-yet-mainstream. Compared to beef numbers, the number of meat goats is a decimal.

Decimals, however, are easier to move. The reason goat producers will enjoy success over the coming years is they have foresight enough to exploit a developing market. It's predominately the ethnic market that is set for fantastic growth. Kansas City and St. Louis each have ethnic populations interested in goat meat. And much of Missouri's goat production heads east to cities where multi-ethnic Muslim populations demand a supply of fresh goat meat—in chefs' parlance, chevon. Goat meat is also popular with Hispanic cooks who call it cabrito.

So aside from looking at current goat production numbers, let's look at U.S. Census projections. A recent Census report said that the nation's population will grow to 419 million over the next half century and non-Hispanic whites will represent just one-half of the total population by 2050. Hispanic population is expected to increase by 188 percent by 2050, coming in at some 67 million people or 24 percent of the total population.

It is true that immigrant populations tend to Americanize their diets over generations. But their cultural influence also seeps into the larger American diet. Thirty years ago you didn't see many Mexican restaurants in small Missouri towns; now they're ubiquitous. Wrapped in that 419 million population projection is a sizeable growth of consumers who favor goat meat, and with them the potential for finding chevon or cabrito on menus at more restaurants. It adds up to what should be a steady increase in demand. Get used to goats. They are here to stay.

  November 2005
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